tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-356778842010-08-25T08:30:28.843-06:00Real estate market conditions in Billings, MontanaDougnoreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-83593638124715855692010-05-20T22:42:00.004-06:002010-05-21T08:19:11.700-06:00

Last month there was a Gazette article about the expiration of the First Time Homebuyer tax credit. To me, the most interesting part was hearing Realtors' ideas about what a post-credit market looks like.Pam Adams, broker-owner of Guardian Mortgage, estimates that 80 percent of her mortgage customers since the first of the year have taken advantage of the tax credit.That's great, but what does

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-1072233807193233342010-04-30T18:05:00.003-06:002010-05-01T16:11:28.670-06:00

Congratulations, you've found your way to the new address for the Billings Housing Market blog. A big thanks to all my readers, supporters, and commenters. This page will continue to be the place for news and analysis of Billings real estate from a non-industry perspective.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-49641293210249054872010-04-28T21:45:00.005-06:002010-04-28T23:12:21.435-06:00

Sunday's Billings Gazette article had a comforting headline for the real estate and construction industries:After long recession, home building in Billings is on the rise againThere's only one problem: It's not exactly true. That headline gives the impression of a solid, sustained increase in building that will last throughout the year. Here's the reality of single family building permits so

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-57962111602781184222010-04-14T21:25:00.001-06:002010-04-14T22:42:22.812-06:00

Spurred on by the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, Billings area builders put up nearly 300 houses in the last 15 months. I've put together the locations for all these houses onto a Google Maps overlay which you can view by clicking below.Some locations could not be geocoded correctly and are just approximations. Note that there are three major clusters where building has been concentrated:

Dougnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-88295958339723902332010-04-01T20:47:00.002-06:002010-04-02T21:43:08.938-06:00

The stats are in for March building permits, and they are really surprising. 45 permits were issued for single family construction in Billings. Only 2001 and 2005 saw higher numbers for March in the last decade.Even when you count the generally busier summer months, March 2010 was the best month since clear back to May 2007. Housing starts are generally an indicator of a healthy housing market.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-38290885557697851832010-03-30T19:25:00.003-06:002010-03-30T23:44:32.977-06:00

See Part 1 here if you missed it. We continue with two more subdivisions which I believe epitomize the excesses and unrealistic expectations of Red Lodge area real estate.Dot Calm RanchesThe Premise: Large lots, mountain viewsThe Problem: It's on a dry, treeless bench that's miles from anywhereRed Lodge real estate agent and developer Jeanne Rizzotto was distributing the above flier in 2006. It

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-26352642746834639502010-03-15T19:41:00.009-06:002010-03-16T00:34:26.576-06:00

Honestly-- I try not to be negative about real estate development and new subdivisions. Cities grow and people need places to live. I understand that. But sometimes, developers move forward with projects that seem to completely defy common sense. The Red Lodge area has four subdivisions that I think fit that description.Most of these subdivisions seem to have been planned with a wildly

Dougnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-14657588474862498352010-03-01T22:13:00.002-07:002010-03-01T22:37:09.867-07:00

For the first time since 1989, house prices in Billings are lower than they were a year ago. This according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index (you can read more about how the HPI measures the Billings market here).The HPI lags just a bit, so the latest figures are based on transactions completed in the fourth quarter of 2009. Home sales during that period average 2.66%

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-86041406661758951532010-01-26T07:19:00.001-07:002010-01-26T08:14:02.773-07:00

You might think there's little to be negative about with the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. After all, I've already shown how it boosted sales and housing starts in the Billings area. The credit proved to be so "popular" that it was extended for an additional 7 months (but as one commentator wryly noted, it's hard to find a government giveaway that's not "popular!").While we're still

Dougnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-60646680474189373422010-01-25T20:16:00.009-07:002010-01-25T21:18:37.864-07:00

A previous post of mine discussed the apparently positive effect the $8k tax credit has had on the Billings market. Now it's time to look at some not-so-positive market dynamics this has resulted in.While it would seem that this credit cost taxpayers $8,000 per house, it's not so simple. Remember, many of those buyers would have purchased homes even without the credit. A better measure is to

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-2740149132811440232010-01-20T22:41:00.003-07:002010-01-20T22:56:46.130-07:00

I'll admit-- when I first heard about Twitter, I thought it was the silliest idea ever. Over time, I've slowly come around and can begin to see its usefulness. It is an interesting way to keep up on topics and people that interest you.Twitter also has some interesting search applications. In fact, this one is kind of creepy: DemandSpot searches social media to find potential home buyers and

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-90454888564854838822010-01-19T22:11:00.002-07:002010-01-19T22:18:11.068-07:00

In early 2009, new home construction in Billings had nearly ground to a halt. Single family building permits were down 70% from 2007 levels.Then congress passed the $787 billion stimulus bill, which included an $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. It was a refundable tax credit (basically, free money) for any first time home owner. The credit was good for 10% of the home purchase price, up

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-75187523836919387442010-01-09T17:49:00.002-07:002010-01-09T22:58:14.515-07:00

Foreclosures are a closely-watched statistic, and until recently Billings seemed to be escaping the national trend of rising defaults. Low foreclosure numbers have often been referenced as a sign that the Billings market is stable and healthy.All that is changing. Here is an updated look at Yellowstone County Notices of Trustee's Sale figures for the decade:The latter part of 2009 saw major

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-7342386897319522412010-01-08T21:41:00.004-07:002010-01-09T00:10:28.049-07:00

You've probably seen a house or two for sale by a self-described "motivated seller." In this post, I'll take a closer look at one of those sellers to see what led to them being motivated. Here's what the current ad looks like (note that it's been listed for several months with no changes):The current owner purchased this Laurel house in 2003, taking out $105,000 in loans. Had the owner simply

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-69851411782048169502010-01-05T19:30:00.010-07:002010-01-08T20:59:09.665-07:00

While this page is primarily about the Billings housing market, I try to keep track of the Red Lodge area as well. It's a low-income, high-priced vacation area that may be prone to the same downturn that Big Sky and other formerly high-flying resort areas have seen. In fact, stats from Gary Khatchikian show that prices are already down 18% from last year.In my 2008 housing video, I highlighted

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-26451321110359920162009-10-10T18:32:00.003-06:002009-10-11T01:23:55.780-06:00

It's been a long summer with little activity on this page, so I'll kick the fall off with all the stats I could find showing how the Billings market is doing.First up, we have the Supply and Demand graph. The bars show quarterly sales, and the lines show housing inventory for each year since 2006. Sales experienced a bounce in the third quarter of 2009, besting 2008 figures. This is

Dougnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-42892220223253679932009-07-19T21:29:00.002-06:002009-07-19T21:36:36.323-06:00

It's a good thing I got some footage of new construction in Billings last month. One house is no longer standing. Take a look at 1413 Twin Oaks Drive, before and after:The Gazette has some pictures of the fire. Billings Fire Department says it's arson.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-37578063683476312542009-06-17T21:54:00.002-06:002009-06-18T00:23:36.056-06:00

This past weekend, I biked around town to see the spring construction hotspots in Billings. The result is the following video showing dozens of residential construction sites in 18 subdivisions around town.This was a fairly quick project, so please excuse the shaky camera and wind noise. Running time is 10:52.Note that this video has been filmed in high definition. But you'll need to click

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-71726457642432567792009-06-06T23:33:00.002-06:002009-06-06T23:44:42.284-06:00

Are Montana banks really safe, conservative lenders that can easily weather a downturn? Now you can judge for yourself. The Bank Loan Performance site has aggregated FDIC filing information so you can quickly view total loan values, portfolio allocation, and delinquency rates for major U.S. banks.Here's a quick summary of delinquency rates on banks with a major presence in Billings:

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-44932192705257444082009-06-04T20:51:00.003-06:002009-06-04T23:56:47.122-06:00

Housing statistics in Billings have been grim over the past year, but the latest figures show some improvement. Is Billings seeing a so-called Spring Bounce?May home sales are up over the same month in 2008:Construction has also improved, halting its precipitous slide in May and equaling May 2008. However, this still represents a 50% drop from 2007.Finally, Yellowstone County unemployment

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-43378640903488448172009-05-31T18:54:00.002-06:002009-05-31T19:05:00.852-06:00

This is a very interesting e-mail I received recently (printed with permission). Jared lives in Bend, Oregon and believes that the rapid rise and fall of that market might give us here in Montana a clue about the future of our housing markets. I think there's a lot to learn from this.My name is Jared, I grew up in Idaho but have lived in Bend, Oregon for the last five years. I moved here amidst

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-39265849717596970812009-05-31T17:30:00.004-06:002009-05-31T18:15:21.798-06:00

There are many, many vacant houses in Yellowstone county. Every now and then, you can find a killer rental deal for just a fraction of what you would pay to own. Here's one:It's a 3500 square foot house, 5 bedroom, 3 bath, 2 car garage, theater room. Subdivision is Copper Ridge, off Rimrock west of 62nd.The owner purchased it in 2006, then listed it for sale just a few months later. This

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-18173016154717497972009-05-21T19:19:00.000-06:002009-05-22T00:13:29.244-06:00

How would you like to live in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath South side house for only about $3000 a month?No? Would it help any if I told you that it's right near the lovely Jackson/Monroe/Jefferson rowhouses? Still no?This actually happened. By purchasing in March 2008 and then selling for a loss 14 months later, this owner has effectively paid $3,000 a month to live in this house. Sort of. Keep

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-56805103152709846022009-05-07T21:36:00.003-06:002009-05-07T23:09:14.695-06:00

Here's a graph of home sales so far this year in Billings, compared to last year. (Source is Howard Sumner's blog).Sales were very weak in April. In fact, there were actually fewer closings in April than in March-- very unusual going into the spring selling season.Consider the incentives that there are to buy right now-- incredibly low interest rates, and an $8,000 first time homebuyer credit.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-40529160746627691972009-05-06T20:08:00.002-06:002009-05-06T20:46:25.197-06:00

Officially, Yellowstone County is at 4.7% unemployment for March 2009 (the latest figures that are available). This is the highest figure in 9 years, but it's still very modest. See this graph:Unofficially, however, there's some crazy stuff going on in the local labor market that is not yet reflected in the stats. Layoffs and job losses are accelerating. In just the latest example, Rimrock

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1